You trust us, we deliver.
Find out below about the performance of Cult Wine Investment and the wine investment market for this latest quarter.
Cult Wine Investment Overview Q4 2024
Insight into the fine wine & global markets
Q4 2024 Performance Highlights
Q4 2024 proved to be a pivotal period for the fine wine market. Although the overall figures remained in the negative, the pace of decline slowed, and early signs of recovery began to emerge. The Cult Wine Investment Performance Index closed the quarter at -2.97%, reflecting ongoing pressure yet indicating that the market's long adjustment phase might finally be drawing to a close. Bordeaux, Burgundy and Rhône experienced more significant declines of -2.76%, -3.85% and -3.16%, respectively, while the Italy Index recorded a relatively milder fall of -1.42%. Notably, the Rest of World Index turned positive in November and December, aided by an uptick in trading, and the Champagne Index also enjoyed a modest recovery in the final month.
Throughout the quarter, trading volumes continued to rise, underscoring a renewed vigour among buyers who are increasingly taking advantage of historically low prices. This heightened trading activity has contributed to the gradual reversal of price declines across many regions as buyer confidence steadily returns. With many wines trading at their lowest prices in years, these green shoots of recovery are beginning to manifest as prices slowly but surely start to climb.
Broader macroeconomic influences have also played a role in reshaping the market's outlook. Despite persistent global uncertainties and cautious central bank policies, investors have increasingly viewed fine wine as a tangible asset and a robust hedge in turbulent times. This shift in sentiment, coupled with the evolving dynamics in global financial markets, has brought about a more positive, albeit cautious, perspective on the market's future. Overall, while Q4 2024 closed with negative figures, the combination of rising trading volumes, selective regional improvements and the initial reversal in price trends offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for the fine wine market moving forward.
-2.97%
Cult Wine Investment Performance showed a modest decrease of -2.97% in Q4 2024, reflecting a continued slowdown in price corrections and demonstrating effective portfolio management amid market challenges.
+17.27%
Cult Wine Investment delivered a 17.27% 5-year return, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.24%, showcasing steady, risk-adjusted growth. This outperforms the Liv-ex 100, which posted an 8.29% return over the same period.
+6.49%
Cult Wine Investment’s compound annual growth rate since inception (2009) driven by a focus on sustained long-term performance supported by our extensive fine wine knowledge and proprietary quantitative analysis.
Data-driven investment
To reach investment goals, we identify wines with the best relative value and growth prospects. We do that by using proprietary AI-driven statistical models derived from millions of data points.
Macro market summary
Q4 2024 continued to showcase dynamic shifts in global financial markets, with equity indices, commodities, and alternative assets delivering a mixed yet intriguing performance. The S&P 500 maintained its resilience by posting a quarterly return of 2.41%, building on its robust 12-month gain of 22.95%, while the NASDAQ outperformed expectations with a strong quarterly surge of 6.35%, contributing to a remarkable five-year return of 123.87%. In contrast, the FTSE 100 experienced a modest quarterly retreat of -0.18% but still sustained an 11.07% rise over the past year, reflecting the cautious optimism prevailing among European investors. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific index, despite a challenging quarterly performance of -7.99%, managed to post a 14.48% gain over the past 12 months, underscoring the resilience and potential recovery in the region.
Alternative assets continued to play a crucial role in the broader market narrative. Gold, the perennial safe haven, saw a slight dip of -0.38% during the quarter but reaffirmed its long-term appeal with a five-year return of 65.08%. Bitcoin, on the other hand, delivered an extraordinary quarterly gain of 48.06%, contributing to a staggering five-year surge of 1,203.15%, which further cements its position as an increasingly mainstream asset. While showing a modest quarterly decline of -1.57%, the Bloomberg Commodity Index still recorded a healthy five-year return of 22.10%, reflecting traditional commodities’ steady, if subdued, performance.
The fine wine market, as measured by the Cult Wine Investment (CWI) Performance Index and the Liv-ex 100, continued to face headwinds in the short term, with quarterly returns of -2.97% and -2.23%, respectively, although both indices have shown resilience over the longer term, boasting five-year returns of 17.27% for CWI and 8.29% for Liv-ex 100. December, however, marked a turning point as the downturn slowed markedly, with the CWI Performance Index registering a modest decline of just -0.09% and the Liv-ex 100 even recording a slight rise of 0.18%.
As Q4 2024 unfolded, the overall market sentiment was cautious optimism. Investors appeared increasingly inclined to adopt diversified strategies, balancing the robust performance of key equity markets and the explosive gains in the cryptocurrency sector with the enduring appeal of tangible assets like gold and fine wine. This evolving landscape highlights the dynamic interplay between traditional and alternative investments and sets the stage for a more balanced approach to managing risk and seeking long-term growth in an uncertain global economic environment.
| Index | Q4 2024 Return | 12 Month Return | 3 Year Return | 5 Year Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWI Performance | -2.97% | -8.56% | -4.47% | 17.27% |
| Liv-ex 100 | -2.23% | -9.09% | -16.53% | 8.29% |
| S&P 500 (TR) | 2.41% | 22.95% | 36.35% | 97.10% |
| FTSE 100 (TR) | -0.18% | 11.07% | 22.55% | 34.33% |
| NASDAQ | 6.35% | 28.23% | 26.44% | 123.87% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific | -7.99% | 14.48% | -12.72% | -1.80% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | -0.38% | 28.82% | 46.09% | 65.08% |
| Bitcoin | 48.06% | 120.24% | 102.90% | 1,203.15% |
| Bloomberg | -1.57% | 0.20% | -0.41% | 22.10% |
Source: Liv-ex, Investing.com as of 31 December 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Cult Wine Investment Performance
In Q4 2024, the fine wine market was influenced by a complex mix of global economic headwinds and emerging signs of recovery. The continued negative performance of key regions—most notably Bordeaux and Burgundy, which together represent the largest share of wines held by clients—reflected ongoing price adjustments amid shifting supply and demand dynamics. In contrast, regions such as Champagne, Italy, and Rest of World recorded modest positive movements in December, signalling that trading activity is beginning to drive prices upward. This increased trading throughout the quarter reflects growing confidence in fine wine as buyers capitalise on attractive prices in anticipation of a broader rebound.
Broader macroeconomic factors also played a significant role during this period. In Q4 2024, persistent global uncertainties—including cautious central bank policies, lingering geopolitical tensions, and sporadic supply chain disruptions—continued to exert downward pressure on asset prices across various markets. However, early indications were that the worst of the downturn may be abating. A moderate easing of inflationary pressures and renewed optimism in alternative asset markets led to heightened trading volumes, which in turn have begun to temper the declines in the fine wine sector. Notably, December marked a turning point, with the Cult Wine Investment Performance Index registering a near-flat performance—declining by only -0.09% and the Liv-ex 100 recording a slight rise of 0.18%.
These developments suggest that, while the fine wine market still faces short-term volatility, the underlying resilience remains intact. The long-term performance figures continue to support the view of fine wine as a robust alternative asset, providing a stabilising counterbalance to the broader market fluctuations witnessed during this period.
Cult Wine Investment Performance
The index level was rebased to 100 in October 2009.
| Period | Total Return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | -2.97% | - |
| 1 Year | -8.56% | - |
| 3 Years | -4.47% | -1.51% |
| 5 Years | 17.27% | 3.24% |
| Since Inception (31/10/2009) | 159.66% | 6.49% |
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 December 2024.
Analysis by Cult Wine Investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Regional performance highlights
In Q4 2024, regional fine wine performance continued to reflect an environment of cautious recalibration, though certain regions began to exhibit signs of stabilisation towards the end of the quarter. Bordeaux, which had experienced sharper corrections earlier, moderated its decline to -2.76% over Q4, compared to the steeper drop observed in Q3. Conversely, Burgundy—representing a significant portion of our portfolio—registered a more pronounced fall of -3.85%, deepening its correction relative to Q3's modest decline.
Champagne, Italy, and the Rest of the World (RoW) regions provided a more nuanced picture. Despite overall negative figures, these areas experienced modest positive shifts in December, with Italy’s performance softening to -1.42% and RoW’s decline limited to -1.44%. While still negative at -2.99% for the quarter, the Champagne index also benefited from some of this upward pressure. The USA mirrored this trend, recording a quarterly drop of -2.06%, which was less severe than earlier losses.
These patterns suggest increased trading activity throughout Q4 is beginning to temper the broader market corrections. While the fine wine market remains in a phase of adjustment, the emerging stabilisation—evidenced by the near-flat performance in December across several indices—offers cautious optimism for a potential recovery moving forward.
| Index | Q4 2024 Rebased 30 September 2024 |
2024 YTD Rebased 31 December 2023 |
2023 Rebased 31 December 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWI Performance | -2.97% | -8.56% | -7.35% |
| Bordeaux | -2.76% | -11.86% | -9.12% |
| Burgundy | -3.85% | -7.21% | -5.43% |
| Champagne | -2.99% | -8.03% | -14.58% |
| Italy | -1.42% | -7.01% | -6.57% |
| Rhone | -3.16% | -5.78% | -6.47% |
| Rest of World (RoW) | -1.44% | -8.09% | 2.09% |
| USA | -2.06% | -7.68% | -11.13% |
Source: Pricing data from Liv-ex as of 31 December 2024.
Analysis by Cult Wine Investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fine wine outlook
With Q4 2024 behind us, the fine wine investment market appears to have all but completed a period of cautious recalibration, setting the stage for possible early gains in Q1 2025 and beyond. Recent trading activity, particularly the near-flat performance observed in December, suggests the market may have reached its nadir, with stabilisation beginning to take hold. Although overall performance remained negative, the moderating declines—especially in key regions—offer promising signals for buyers.
Several macroeconomic factors influenced the market during Q4. Continued rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and easing measures by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have improved liquidity and bolstered confidence in alternative assets like fine wine. In addition, a seasonal uptick in demand for Champagne and other fine wines during the holiday period helped support the market by tightening supply.
Geopolitical developments, notably the disruption following former President Trump’s re-election and lingering uncertainties about future US trade policies, have added layers of complexity to the financial landscape. Although Trump’s re-election has historically triggered market volatility and unpredictable shifts in trade relations, many analysts expect its long-term impact to gradually stabilise as new policies take shape, potentially supporting asset diversification as buyers seek refuge in tangible investments.
Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Attractive pricing levels, combined with renewing buyer interest from retail and trade participants and improved trading volumes, suggest the fine wine market is well positioned for recovery. As sentiment strengthens, strategic portfolio management will be crucial for those aiming to capitalise on what could be a turning point in the market’s long-term growth trajectory.
Past performance is not indicative of future success; the performance was calculated in GBP and will vary in other currencies. Any investment involves risk of partial or full loss of capital. The Cult Wines Global Index is a hypothetical tool. The results depicted here are not based on actual trading and do not account for the annual management fees that may be charged to a Cult Wines customer which ranges from 2.95% to 2.25% depending on the size of the portfolio, and there is no guarantee of similar performance with an investor’s particular portfolio.